Zohran Mamdani secured an upset victory in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary against former Governor Andrew Cuomo. While Mamdani won convincingly overall, an analysis of the results indicates he faced challenges gaining support in some lower-income and predominantly Black neighborhoods, raising questions about coalition building for the general election.
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Primary Victory and Demographic Analysis
On June 24, Zohran Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. Final ranked-choice voting results released on Tuesday showed Mamdani winning with 56 percent compared to Cuomo’s 44 percent. This significant win sent ripples through US politics.
However, preliminary results suggest that Mamdani’s support was less strong in some lower-income areas, particularly those with large Black populations like Brownsville and East Flatbush, where Cuomo held a lead. Both neighborhoods have high poverty rates and Black residents make up over 60 percent of the population.
An analysis by The New York Times indicated that precincts with a majority of low-income residents leaned towards Cuomo (49 percent) more than Mamdani (38 percent). In precincts with a majority of Black residents, support for Cuomo was even higher at 51 percent. These patterns prompted discussions about whether Mamdani’s message on affordability resonated equally across all demographics or if more complex factors were at play.
Understanding Voter Choices: Factors at Play
Political analysts point to several potential reasons for Mamdani’s performance in certain areas. Jerry Skurnik, a political consultant, noted Andrew Cuomo’s established name recognition as a two-time governor and son of a former governor with decades in politics and national endorsements. Mamdani, serving in the State Assembly since 2020, is relatively new to the political scene. Primaries often attract older voters, traditionally seen as a stronger base for Cuomo, though Mamdani saw unexpectedly high turnout among younger voters (20s and 30s).
Reverend Al Sharpton speaks endorsing Zohran Mamdani at a National Action Network event in Harlem.
Experts also suggest that as a progressive candidate facing a centrist, Mamdani may have been perceived as a riskier choice by some voters, particularly those from vulnerable communities with precarious economic situations. John Gershman, a New York University professor, noted that for low-income families, the calculus might focus on risking the least rather than choosing the “best” candidate.
Media habits could also play a role. Gershman suggested more low-income voters rely on legacy media like television, where Cuomo had a larger presence, while Mamdani used social media heavily alongside TV ads.
Some conservative commentators offered a different interpretation. Speaking to Fox News, Republican strategist Karl Rove suggested that low-income voters in these areas might fear the potential tax implications of Mamdani’s proposed spending on anti-poverty programs.
Beyond the Numbers: A Complex Voter Landscape
However, many experts emphasize that broad demographic trends can oversimplify the picture. Michael Lange, a writer and political strategist, highlighted that Mamdani performed well in many lower-income neighborhoods that are predominantly Hispanic or Asian, such as Elmhurst and Flushing in Queens.
Activist Asad Dandia argued that Mamdani’s support base is a diverse coalition across various communities, including ethnic enclaves and Latino-majority areas. He also pointed out that Mamdani did win in some historically Black neighborhoods, including Harlem.
NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani addresses supporters at a rally with campaign signs.
Juan Battle, a professor at the City University of New York, stressed that voter priorities shift with each election cycle. He noted that crime was a dominant issue in the last mayoral election, benefiting the current mayor, Eric Adams. If crime were the main issue today, he speculated Cuomo might have won the primary.
Pedestrian walks past campaign signs for Zohran Mamdani on a street in New York City.
Looking Ahead: The Path to November
As the Democratic nominee, Mamdani is now the frontrunner and is set to face incumbent Mayor Eric Adams in the November general election. Andrew Cuomo has not ruled out a potential third-party run.
Mamdani’s campaign is expected to continue building its coalition, including efforts to strengthen support among demographics where he performed less strongly in the primary. This includes actively reaching out to Black voters.
Portia Allen-Kyle, executive director of the racial justice group Color of Change, noted that Black voters are not a monolithic group and emphasized the need for authenticity and innovation in reaching them. She suggested diversifying outreach beyond traditional political forums.
Mamdani has sought alliances with figures like Reverend Al Sharpton, who spoke at an event in Harlem endorsing Mamdani and addressing the analysis of the Black vote. Sharpton praised Mamdani for choosing to engage with the Black community despite analysis showing stronger support elsewhere.
Building a broad coalition will be key as Mamdani moves from the primary victory to the general election contest. Understanding the diverse priorities and concerns within different communities remains crucial for his campaign’s strategy.
Zohran Mamdani walks with New York Attorney General Letitia James at a Pride event.
Mamdani’s primary win highlighted shifts in the Democratic electorate and the complexities of voter behavior across New York City’s diverse population. His performance in the general election will depend significantly on his campaign’s ability to unify these varied groups.
