The Dalai Lama, the 89-year-old spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, has confirmed that the 600-year-old institution of the Dalai Lama will continue after his death. The announcement, made during celebrations ahead of his 90th birthday in Dharamshala, India, has significant spiritual implications for millions of Buddhists and is deeply intertwined with geopolitical dynamics involving China, India, and the United States.
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The 14th Dalai Lama stated on Wednesday, July 2, 2025, that he had received requests from various Tibetan Buddhist leaders, the Tibetan government-in-exile, and followers worldwide urging the institution’s continuation. His affirmation sets the stage for the complex process of finding his successor, a process currently at the heart of a major dispute between the Tibetan exile community and the Chinese government.
Why the Dalai Lama Succession Matters
The choice of the next Dalai Lama is not just a religious matter; it is a major point of contention with profound geopolitical consequences. For centuries, the Dalai Lama has served as the spiritual and, historically, political head of the Tibetan people. The method and location of selecting his reincarnation are central to the Tibetan identity and resistance movement.
The current 14th Dalai Lama fled Tibet for India in 1959 following a failed uprising against Chinese rule. Based in Dharamshala, India, he has become a global figure advocating for Tibetan autonomy and human rights. His passing and the subsequent search for his successor represent a critical moment that could shape the future of Tibetan Buddhism and the ongoing struggle between Beijing and the Tibetan exile community.
How a Dalai Lama is Traditionally Chosen
The selection process for a new Dalai Lama is steeped in centuries of tradition and spiritual belief. Tibetan Buddhists believe the Dalai Lama is the reincarnation of Avalokiteshvara, the Bodhisattva of Compassion.
Traditionally, after the passing of the incumbent Dalai Lama, a search committee of high-ranking lamas begins a quest based on spiritual signs, oracles, and visions. This includes observations at sacred sites like Lhamo Latso lake in Tibet. Potential young boy candidates, usually born around the time of the previous Dalai Lama’s death, undergo tests to identify objects belonging to the predecessor. Once confirmed, the child receives rigorous religious and philosophical training.
The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, was born in 1935 and identified at the age of two by recognizing belongings of the 13th Dalai Lama.
Exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, gave on June 30, the strongest indication yet that the 600-year-old institution would continue after his death, at prayer celebrations for his 90th birthday. The leader, who turns 90 on July 6, is according to Tibetans the 14th reincarnation of the Dalai Lama. (Photo by Sanjay BAID / AFP)
Exiled spiritual leader Dalai Lama attends prayer celebration in Dharamshala, India ahead of his 90th birthday, indicating continuity of the 600-year institution.
The Current Dalai Lama’s Statements on Succession
The 14th Dalai Lama has made various statements about his succession over the years, at times suggesting the institution might end. However, his recent affirmation in Dharamshala provides clarity on his current intent for its continuation.
During the birthday celebrations, he stated, “As far as the institution of the Dalai Lama is concerned, there will be a framework for it to continue.” He expressed his determination to continue serving “Dharma and sentient beings.”
Crucially, the Dalai Lama has also indicated where his reincarnation should be sought. In his recent book, “Voice for the Voiceless,” he wrote that “the new Dalai Lama will be born in the free world,” effectively stating the successor should not be found in China or Chinese-controlled Tibet. He has previously mentioned that his incarnation could be found in India. This stance directly challenges China’s assertion of control over the process.
China’s Position and the Golden Urn
China views the selection of the next Dalai Lama as a matter of state sovereignty and religious regulation. Beijing insists that only its government has the authority to approve the reincarnation, citing a 2007 law that mandates state approval for all reincarnations of Tibetan “living Buddhas.”
Chinese officials maintain that the next Dalai Lama must be born inside China and selected according to Chinese laws and historical precedent, specifically promoting the “golden urn” system. This 18th-century method involves drawing lots from a golden vessel to select a candidate, a process the current Dalai Lama has rejected as lacking spiritual validity.
Beijing has repeatedly stated that any successor chosen outside China or without its approval would be considered “illegitimate.” China’s Foreign Ministry recently reiterated this position, stating the process “must be chosen by drawing lots from a golden urn, and approved by the central government.”
A painting by Kanwal Krishna dated probably in 1930s of young Dalai Lama (Tenzin Gyatso, born in 1935), the traditional religious and temporal head of Tibet
Painting by Kanwal Krishna, circa 1930s, shows the young 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso.
The Precedent of the Panchen Lama
A key event that fuels the Tibetan exile community’s concern about China’s intentions is the case of the 11th Panchen Lama, the second-highest figure in Tibetan Buddhism. In 1995, the 14th Dalai Lama recognized a six-year-old boy in Tibet, Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, as the reincarnation of the Panchen Lama.
Shortly after, Chinese authorities took the boy and his family into custody. Their whereabouts have been unknown since. Beijing then appointed its own candidate, Gyaincain Norbu, as the 11th Panchen Lama. This move was widely rejected by Tibetans in exile and many inside Tibet, who consider Beijing’s choice illegitimate.
This incident demonstrated China’s willingness to intervene forcefully in the reincarnation process and solidified the Dalai Lama’s determination that his successor should be chosen outside of Chinese control to prevent a similar outcome.
The Likelihood of Two Rival Dalai Lamas
Given the deep divide between the Tibetan exile community and the Chinese government, many observers believe it is highly probable that after the 14th Dalai Lama’s death, two rival successors will emerge. One would likely be a candidate identified through traditional Tibetan methods under the guidance of lamas loyal to the current Dalai Lama, likely found outside China. The other would be a candidate selected and endorsed by the Chinese government within Tibet.
This unprecedented scenario would create significant challenges for Tibetan Buddhists, particularly those living inside Tibet, who could be pressured by the Chinese government to recognize Beijing’s chosen candidate. While the exiled community would likely rally behind their chosen successor, the existence of a state-backed rival would be a source of ongoing instability and division. The current Dalai Lama himself has acknowledged this possibility, predicting that a Chinese-backed candidate would not garner trust or respect.
Tibetans in New Delhi carry pictures of Gedun Choekyi Nyima, the Panchen Lama reincarnation recognised by the Dalai Lama, shout anti-Chinese slogans to mark their protest on December 8 against enthronement of another Panchen Lama recognised by the Chinese government in Tibet today. Reuters
Tibetans protest in New Delhi in 1995, holding pictures of Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, the Panchen Lama recognized by the Dalai Lama, after China appointed its own candidate.
Geopolitical Dimensions: India and the US
The Dalai Lama’s succession is also a geostrategic issue, particularly for India and the United States.
India has hosted the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government-in-exile for 66 years. New Delhi has consistently supported the Tibetan community’s right to religious freedom and cultural preservation. India’s External Affairs Minister recently emphasized that the decision of the next Dalai Lama should be made by the established convention and the Dalai Lama himself, sending a clear message to China. India sees the Tibetan community as a buffer and leverage point in its complex relationship with Beijing.
The United States has a long history of supporting the Tibetan cause, particularly concerning human rights and religious freedom. US policy, solidified by the Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA) of 2020, explicitly supports the Dalai Lama’s right to determine his own reincarnation and authorizes sanctions against Chinese officials who interfere in the process. Washington views China’s claim of authority over the succession as an infringement on religious freedom and a challenge to international norms.
Picture taken on September 17, 1959 of Indian prime minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru (R) and Dalaï Lama in Buddhist salutation. (Photo by PUNJAB / AFP)
Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and the Dalai Lama pictured together in India on September 17, 1959, shortly after the Dalai Lama fled Tibet.
What Comes Next?
While the Dalai Lama has confirmed the institution will continue, the specifics of the search process and the timing remain open questions. His health and longevity are key factors. Any further details he provides on the method or potential location of his reincarnation would be significant.
The primary conflict will continue to be between the Tibetan exile community’s adherence to tradition and the Dalai Lama’s guidance, and China’s determination to control the process for political ends. The international community, led by countries like India and the US, will likely continue to pressure China to respect the religious autonomy of Tibetan Buddhists. The coming years will reveal how this complex spiritual and geopolitical struggle unfolds, potentially leading to the unprecedented scenario of two competing Dalai Lamas.
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