US desktop and notebook shipments saw robust growth in the first quarter of 2025, rising 15% year over year to reach 16.9 million units, according to data from Canalys (now part of Omdia). However, this initial surge was primarily driven by vendors pushing inventory into the channel ahead of potential tariff announcements, creating a significant buildup that will likely temper growth for the remainder of the year.
Contents
- Q1 Boom Fueled by Vendor Tactics and Tariff Anticipation
- Outlook Shifts: Inventory Clearance and Consumer Headwinds
- Commercial Strength Outweighs Consumer Weakness
- Consumer Demand: Beyond Windows 10 EoS
- Looking Ahead: Windows 10 EoS as a 2026 Catalyst
- Conclusion: Managing Inventory and Navigating a Mixed Market
Key Takeaways:
- Q1 2025 US PC shipments grew 15% annually to 16.9 million units.
- Growth was fueled by vendors anticipating tariffs, leading to high channel inventory.
- Inventory buildup and consumer spending pressure are expected to slow the market, resulting in just 2% total growth forecast for 2025.
- Commercial PC demand remains strong (8% growth forecast), while consumer shipments are expected to decline (-4%).
- The Windows 10 end-of-support deadline in October 2025 is a key driver for stronger growth anticipated in 2026 (4% forecast).
Q1 Boom Fueled by Vendor Tactics and Tariff Anticipation
The 15% year-on-year increase in the first quarter reflects vendors aggressively shipping units into the US market. This “sell-in” activity was largely motivated by efforts to build channel inventory in advance of potential new tariffs, aiming to mitigate future cost impacts. While boosting the Q1 numbers, this strategy has led to a significant volume of PCs now held by retailers and distributors, rather than being sold directly to end customers.
Outlook Shifts: Inventory Clearance and Consumer Headwinds
The substantial inventory accumulated in Q1 is set to put downward pressure on vendor shipments in subsequent quarters as the channel works to clear stock. This comes at a time when consumer spending on big-ticket items like PCs is facing challenges. Factors such as broader inflationary pressures (even if PCs remain exempt from specific tariffs) and the Federal Reserve’s pause on interest rate cuts in anticipation of rising prices are likely to constrain discretionary spending.
As a result, the initial strong performance is not expected to carry through the year. Canalys/Omdia forecasts total US PC shipments for 2025 to increase by a modest 2% annually, a sharp deceleration from the Q1 rate.
Bar chart showing historical and forecast annual growth percentages for US PC shipments by segment.
Commercial Strength Outweighs Consumer Weakness
A key dynamic in the market is the divergence between commercial and consumer demand. Business procurement of PCs is projected to remain healthy throughout 2025, largely driven by the ongoing transition to Windows 11. Canalys/Omdia anticipates commercial PC shipments to grow a robust 8% this year.
Ishan Dutt, Research Director at Canalys (now part of Omdia), notes, “The pace of transition to Windows 11 among US businesses has been a positive sign for the industry. Commercial demand, particularly from SMBs, is set to accelerate in the second half of 2025 as Microsoft ramps up its awareness drive on the importance of timely refresh.”
In stark contrast, consumer shipments are forecast to decline by 4% in 2025.
Consumer Demand: Beyond Windows 10 EoS
Despite the looming Windows 10 end-of-support (EoS) date in October 2025, consumer demand has shown limited reaction. Kieren Jessop, Research Manager at Canalys (now part of Omdia), explains, “This highlights a key reality: many PC users are indifferent to the Windows 10 EoS until it becomes a significant pain point. Consumer PC purchases tend to be largely driven by factors like poor battery life, slow performance or hardware failures.”
The complexity of the PC buying process, including overwhelming specifications and unclear messaging, also contributes to consumer inertia. Vendors and channel partners need to focus on simplifying the purchasing journey through needs-based messaging and streamlined product portfolios to better guide consumers.
Looking Ahead: Windows 10 EoS as a 2026 Catalyst
While the Windows 10 EoS date isn’t significantly impacting consumer purchases in 2025, it is expected to play a larger role in driving upgrades, particularly within the commercial sector, following the October deadline. A considerable portion of the anticipated Windows refresh activity is expected to materialize in 2026.
This delayed refresh cycle, combined with potential improvements in the broader economic outlook, is forecast to boost overall US PC market growth to 4% in 2026.
Pie chart illustrating US PC market share by vendor in Q1 2025, showing HP, Dell, Lenovo, and Apple as leading companies.
In Q1 2025, HP led the US PC market with a 24.3% share, followed closely by Dell at 23.0%. Lenovo, Apple, and Acer also held significant shares, with Apple showing the strongest annual growth among the top vendors.
Conclusion: Managing Inventory and Navigating a Mixed Market
The US PC market’s strong start to 2025 was largely an artificial bump driven by tariff anticipation and vendor sell-in, leading to excess inventory. This sets the stage for a slower second half of 2025, compounded by cautious consumer spending. While the commercial segment shows resilience, particularly aided by the Windows 11 transition, the consumer market requires vendors and channels to simplify messaging and purchasing experiences. The true impact of the Windows 10 end-of-support is likely to be a key driver for renewed growth in 2026. Managing current inventory levels will be crucial for market players throughout the year.
