Fears are growing in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast following reports of a Russian troop build-up near the border and concerns of a potential large-scale offensive. Ukrainian officials and soldiers are bracing for intensified attacks as limited Russian operations are already underway in the region, capturing several border villages. Uncertainty surrounds the scale and ultimate goal of Russia’s actions, while civilian evacuations continue.
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Reports of Troop Movements and Russian Intentions
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed Russia had amassed 50,000 troops “in the direction of Sumy.” This follows Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement on May 22 about creating a “security buffer zone” along the border.
A source within Ukraine’s defense forces described these units as “trained combat units — airborne troops, marines,” specifically transferred.
Russian forces have launched limited offensive operations, capturing a small number of villages in the oblast. However, the full scale of Moscow’s intentions remains unclear to both soldiers and experts.
Journalists’ access to Sumy Oblast has been restricted by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) since the withdrawal from Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian military command for the area cited a “limited” ability to comment on the situation.
Context: The Kursk Operation and Its Aftermath
The current concerns about a renewed Russian push into Sumy Oblast emerge two months after Ukrainian troops withdrew from Russia’s adjacent Kursk Oblast. This withdrawal followed the loss of the logistics hub town of Sudzha.
After Ukraine’s operation in Kursk concluded, Russian troops reportedly took momentum and began raids into Sumy Oblast. This development potentially hindered Ukraine’s ability to recover and strengthen its defenses in the Sumy region.
The Situation for Ukrainian Troops
Ukrainian soldiers on the ground are preparing for potentially tougher conditions, uncertain of what the future holds. Many units are reportedly exhausted after extended periods holding positions under heavy Russian drone and glide bomb attacks.
Ukraine’s ability to defend Sumy Oblast may depend on reinforcing the area amidst existing manpower challenges.
Ukrainian local authorities acknowledged on May 26 that Russia had captured four border villages in Sumy Oblast: Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka.
Map of Ukraine's Sumy Oblast near the Russian border
According to a deputy company commander, Russian troops are employing tactics involving small assault groups and using quad bikes for “fast movement.” These small assaults are most active near Zhuravka and Basivka but have expanded to other areas.
Andriy Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service, noted that Russia is also pushing westward near Veselivka and Volodymyrivka, reportedly suffering significant losses. Despite this, Demchenko stated, “we see that they openly do not give a damn about their soldiers.”
Analyzing Russia’s Potential Objectives
The extent of Russia’s planned advance into Sumy Oblast remains uncertain. Analysts describe the push as a gradual effort over recent weeks, slowly capturing border villages. This pace is expected to continue in the near term.
Demchenko confirmed on May 20 that Russia was bringing more equipment to the border area. However, attacks remained small incursions using infantry squads and limited equipment like quad bikes. The precise amount of equipment amassed near Sumy Oblast is unknown.
Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst monitoring the conflict, suggests Russia will likely continue a “slow kind of offensive operation” in the northern border areas of Sumy Oblast. However, he believes the eastern Donbas region will likely remain Moscow’s primary focus.
Aftermath of a Russian drone strike that killed civilians in Sumy Oblast
Kastehelmi stated he would be “surprised” if Sumy Oblast became a main axis of any large Russian summer offensive. He argued this would stretch Russian troops and that Moscow could likely achieve more on other fronts.
“It’s likely that the Russians continue to attack in Sumy (Oblast) too, but I would assess it as a secondary direction where they can tie up Ukrainian resources,” he commented.
Border areas are inherently difficult to fortify due to their proximity to Russia and vulnerability to raids and attacks on engineering equipment.
Kastehelmi noted the pace of Russian village captures has been “really slow.” He speculated Moscow could simply be trying to prevent future Ukrainian incursions into Russia. Capturing a few more villages would not significantly alter the overall strategic situation.
Civilian Impact and Evacuation
Sumy Oblast has faced regular Russian attacks since 2022, with intensity increasing since the incursion into Kursk. A civilian evacuation is currently underway.
Governor Oleh Hryhorov reported on May 19 that nearly 56,000 residents had been evacuated under mandatory orders.
As of May 20, authorities had asked residents in three municipalities — Bilopillya, Vorozhba, and Nova Sloboda — to evacuate in the preceding month but were not yet forcing departures. A representative from the Regional Military Administration stated there was currently “no threat to the oblast from there,” referring readers to soldiers for information on the border situation.
Ukrainian service members operating a mortar in Sumy region
Despite the potential threat and nightly drone attacks, some Ukrainian soldiers describe the situation near the border as “more or less normal (and) controlled.” However, the reported high number of Russian troops nearby keeps troops on alert.
Ukrainian servicemen expressed uncertainty about whether a full offensive into Sumy Oblast will materialize but anticipate continued assaults.
According to a source in Ukraine’s defense forces, Russia’s ultimate intentions may depend on whether they succeed in securing the “security buffer zone” ordered by Putin.
“It is clear to us that if they manage to do this, they will go further,” the source stated, reiterating the view that Russia’s overall goal remains to occupy all of Ukraine.
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