Poland is heading for a presidential runoff election on June 1, featuring Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski from the ruling Civic Platform (PO) and Karol Nawrocki, supported by Law and Justice (PiS). The outcome is set to significantly impact Poland’s internal political landscape and its crucial relationship with Ukraine, following a high-turnout first round where Trzaskowski narrowly led Nawrocki. This election takes place amid shifting political dynamics, including a notable rise of the far right and evolving public sentiment towards Ukraine.
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The First Round Results and Political Stakes
The initial round saw a record 67.3% voter turnout, with Trzaskowski securing 31.4% and Nawrocki 29.5%. This close result has been interpreted as a challenge to the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk since 2023. If Nawrocki, endorsed by outgoing President Andrzej Duda, wins, he could frequently use presidential vetoes to obstruct the government’s agenda.
While the Polish president’s executive powers are limited, the role is significant in foreign affairs and as commander-in-chief. Polish presidents have historically played an active part in shaping eastern policy, making this election particularly relevant for Poland’s ties with its eastern neighbor. Political analysts note that the leaders in power strongly influence bilateral relations.
The Rise of the Far Right and Anti-Ukrainian Sentiment
Poland’s political scene, traditionally split between the pro-European PO and conservative nationalist PiS, has seen growing support for populist and anti-establishment groups. In this election cycle, the far right gained unprecedented strength, potentially acting as a kingmaker in the runoff.
Slawomir Mentzen of the Confederation Party, an economically libertarian and socially conservative group, finished third with 14.8% of the vote. Though left-wing candidates collectively garnered 10.2%, Mentzen’s votes are now heavily courted by both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. Both candidates appeared on Mentzen’s YouTube channel, and Nawrocki notably signed a list of demands put forward by Mentzen.
Rafal Trzaskowski campaigns in Krakow, Poland, on May 13, 2025.
Mentzen has openly criticized Poland’s support for Ukraine, opposing military aid and assistance for refugees. He promotes a nationalist perspective that views Ukrainians as economic and cultural competitors. Mentzen conditioned his potential support in the runoff on candidates promising not to send Polish troops to Ukraine and opposing Ukraine’s NATO membership.
Political analysts observe a rise in anti-Ukrainian sentiment, extending beyond the far right into the mainstream. Factors cited include societal fatigue with the ongoing war, competition for housing in major cities, and communication issues between the two nations. While pro-Russian narratives are unpopular, anti-Ukrainian views find traction. Another far-right figure, Grzegorz Braun, who campaigned against the “Ukrainization” of Poland, received 6.3% of the vote. Braun gained notoriety for disrupting events and tearing down a Ukrainian flag during his campaign.
The Candidates’ Stances and Visions
Rafal Trzaskowski, a pro-European figure associated with the Polish liberal establishment, must balance maintaining his base with appealing to younger, more radical voters influenced by the Confederation. He has won the Warsaw mayoral election twice but lost the 2020 presidential race to Duda by a narrow margin. Trzaskowski advocates for deeper cooperation with the EU and key European partners like Germany. However, he has drawn criticism for using terms like “buffer zone” in reference to Ukraine.
Karol Nawrocki, formerly the director of the Institute of National Remembrance, aligned himself closely with elements of the far-right platform during the campaign. He promised tax cuts, rejection of EU climate policies, and criticized Ukraine’s treatment of Poland. Though officially campaigning as an independent, he is backed by PiS. Analysts describe Nawrocki as a nationalist rather than a traditional conservative, suggesting his victory could slow Ukraine’s integration with the West. His brief meeting with Donald Trump during a U.S. visit led one analyst to call him a “Trumpian politician,” likely seeking alignment with the former U.S. president’s agenda.
Karol Nawrocki addresses supporters in Warsaw after a debate on May 12, 2025.
Poland-Ukraine Relations: From Solidarity to Strain
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland became a steadfast ally, providing significant military aid, sheltering refugees, and mobilizing Western support. Over time, however, the relationship has faced challenges due to political tensions, economic pressures, and disputes over issues such as grain imports and historical memory. The resumption of exhumations of victims of the Volyn Massacre represents a symbolic step forward in addressing painful historical chapters, but broader societal and political strains persist.
Despite frictions, both candidates have pledged to maintain military support for Ukraine and increase Poland’s defense spending. However, a key difference lies in their approaches to international alliances and how Ukraine’s interests might be prioritized. Some Ukrainian observers express concern that the Polish right’s fear of Ukrainian economic competition and political ties with Berlin could influence policy.
An elderly couple cast their votes during the first round of Poland’s presidential election in Warsaw on May 18, 2025.
Authorities have also reported foreign-funded disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks ahead of the vote, with suspicions often directed towards Russia, which is also blamed for other disruptive acts like the 2024 arson attack on a Warsaw shopping center. These are seen as part of a potential hybrid warfare strategy aimed at destabilizing Ukraine’s allies. However, some caution against overstating the impact of Russian meddling, arguing that domestic political issues on both sides contribute significantly to tensions.
Conclusion
The June 1 runoff between Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki is a pivotal moment for Poland, with significant implications for its internal political landscape and future relationship with Ukraine. The outcome will determine whether the ruling coalition faces persistent obstruction and could influence Poland’s strategic direction, particularly regarding its eastern policy and alliances. The rise of the far right and evolving public sentiment add complexity to a race already closely watched in Kyiv. Regardless of the winner, both nations will need to navigate ongoing challenges while maintaining strategic cooperation in defense, energy, and the economy.
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